Tag: Russia

Another step out of Russia

By Nina Bachkatov

President Zelensky hailed as “historic” the cessation of Russian gas exports through Ukraine on January 1. The five-year transit contract, signed at the end of 2019, had been maintained even after Russia’s invasion, as Ukraine sought to “demonstrate its reliability as a partner to Europe”. On 19st December 2024, President Zelensky confirmed that the contract would not be renewed, stating it was a move aimed at undermining Russia’s war effort. However, he said little about the potential economic consequences for Ukraine, including the loss of transit fees, the inability to siphon deliveries en route to the EU as in the past, and the heightened risk of Russian attacks on pipeline infrastructure. He also categorically ruled out transporting Russian gas disguised as Azerbaijani via Ukrainian pipelines.

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Assad In Moscow, the Unwanted Guest

By Nina Bachkatov

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his annual televised Q&A session on 19 December, acknowledged that he had yet to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad but planned to do so soon. Putin dismissed speculation that the fall of the Assad regime represented a defeat for Russia or the loss of its military foothold on the Mediterranean. He conceded that the sudden collapse of Damascus without a fight had taken Russia by surprise but pointedly noted that this was true for all, including those preparing to engage not with a “democratic opposition” but with a group classified as a terrorist organisation.

On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed Brussels, emphasising that only unified action by the EU, NATO, and the US could ensure Ukraine achieves “peace through strength.” His rhetoric reflected concerns over the EU’s ability to act decisively and the unpredictability of former US President Donald Trump, who could influence NATO and exert pressure on EU members through tariffs.

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War in Ukraine: a thousand days and counting

By Nina Bachkatov

Once again, the war in Ukraine is testing the “world order.” Left on their own, Ukrainian forces are not expected to resist beyond March 2025. The country faces a stark choice: secure greater international aid to sustain the fight or pursue an appeasement with security guarantees. For months, it has been clear that Ukraine is in dire straits. The Kursk offensive did not unfold as planned by President Zelensky, and both Russia and Ukraine are straining to recruit men and produce arms. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is systematically being destroyed, leaving citizens without electricity and paralysing industrial production.

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Cross-Message From Kazan

By Nina Bachkatov

Despite being previously dismissed as a low-key exercise, the 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan attracted significant international attention. This year’s gathering took place amid a tense geopolitical backdrop: Israel’s actions in Iran, North Korean soldiers arriving in Russia’s Far East en route to the Ukrainian front, and uncertainty surrounding UN Secretary-General Guterres’ response to his invitation.

The BRICS coalition was launched in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, later adding South Africa in 2010. Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and the UAE joined at last year’s summit, while Belarus gained partner status this year. In total, 32 countries were represented, two-thirds by their heads of state, including NATO member Turkey, represented by President Erdogan. Brazil’s president was absent due to health concerns.

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A disconcerting war summer

By Nina Bachkatov

July and August were anything but uneventful in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The summer began poorly for Ukraine, yet by the end of August, Russian citizens were witnessing their refineries ablaze as far east as Omsk, while 120,000 people were evacuated from the Kursk region. Despite these setbacks, Russia’s advance in the Donbas continued, accompanied by relentless waves of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, leaving entire regions without electricity for much of the day. In this fraught context, President Zelensky’s plan for a second Peace Conference in November has come under scrutiny. Initially envisioned to include a Russian delegation and representatives of the “Global South,” the feasibility of the conference now seems uncertain. Meanwhile, President Putin remains steadfast in portraying Russia as under attack by Ukrainian terrorists backed by NATO, cyclically emphasising Russia’s status as a nuclear superpower.

Even the optimists now fear that the cycle of destruction and death will persist, fueled by a growing thirst for revenge in both Ukrainian and Russian societies. Rationality appears only one part of the equation when considering the non-exhaustive list of this summer’s developments.

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Ukraine better armed, with caveat

President Biden’s decision to allow Ukrainians to strike inside Russian territory using American munitions took everyone by surprise. This move followed US Secretary of State Blinken’s unexpected visit to Kyiv on May 14. Blinken was reportedly shocked by the situation on the ground as detailed by President Zelensky, including the rapid progression of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region and devastating attacks on Ukraine’s second-largest city. This is not only a human catastrophe but also a significant blow to Kharkiv, an industrial and research center crucial for the country’s future reconstruction. Moreover, the advance of Russian forces beyond the 2014 front line jeopardises the West’s goal of pressuring Moscow to negotiate from a position of weakness.

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The battlefield and political front: a shifting landscape

By Nina Bachkatov

The recent Russian offensive spanning the border between Belgorod and Kharkiv regions has ignited a flurry of discussions among Western observers, centering on terms like “strategic turn” and “historic shift.” These conversations gain particular significance against the backdrop of political upheavals in Moscow and Kyiv. However, the pivotal moment arrived from Washington. On April 21st, the US House of Representatives finally greenlit the long-delayed $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Shortly thereafter, on May 14th, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a significant visit to Kyiv. President Biden’s swift enactment of the aid package, just three days after the congressional approval, fueled speculation about the quick deployment of American arms from European bases to Ukraine. Later, Blinken’s unexpected return on April 21st coincided with escalating Russian advances near Kharkiv.

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