Putin – Page 2 – INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA

A third year of war on European soil

By Nina Bachkatov

It is uncommon to “commemorate” the invasion of a country still under occupation and subjected to daily bombings by its neighbour. However, the war in Ukraine has followed an unconventional pattern due to political and military fluctuations since February 2022. The stark reality is that no one has presented the “innovative” approach called for by General Zaluzhny in his notable December 2023 letter to the American magazine Time. This notion has been reiterated during commemorations to emphasise the inadequacy of persisting with the same approach, albeit with improved equipment and greater coordination. The fact is that the year 2023 did not unfold as anticipated, and the prospects for 2024 appear uncertain for both internal and international reasons.

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Pages: 12

Vladimir the fifth

By Nina Bachkatov

On 8^th February, Russia’s Central Electoral Commission unveiled the four candidates officially registered for the 15-17 March presidential election. They are: Vladimir Putin, running independently for a fifth term; Leonid Slutsky from the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR); Nikolai Kharitonov from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation; and Vladislav Davankov from the New People Party. Slutsky and Kharitonov, known figures within the “systemic” opposition, are expected to garner approximately 10% of the votes. Davankov’s candidacy comes as a surprise; at 39 years old, he is the youngest candidate and a member of a lesser-known party. Twenty-five political parties have been granted participation rights in the election.

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Pages: 12

No peace in sight in the Eastern front

By Nina Bachkatov

The year 2024 started with good news: 248 Russian and 224 Ukrainian soldiers were exchanged, the first since 7 August. In the meantime, as big prisoner exchanges had been frozen, the only way captured soldiers can make it back to their own side was, and still is, through informal battlefield swaps between commanders. This practice, and the discretion of military authorities, makes impossible any estimates of the number of POWs, certainly many thousands. Kyiv and Moscow claim that the ‘enemy’ is manipulating the prisoners’ issue for their own political motives. The families are less and less inhibited to question their respective authorities to accelerate the negotiations about exchanges – even if the released soldiers are sent back to the front.

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Pages: 12

The War Moving Deep into the Black Sea

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, attention shifted swiftly from the Ukrainian land front to the Crimea Peninsula, and subsequently, encompassed the entire Black Sea’s “strategic region.” This transition transpired so rapidly that by March, it remained conceivable to title the situation as “Crimea: the end of a taboo.” Six months later, Ukrainian drones and missiles have become a regular presence, targeting Crimea’s infrastructure and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In the interim, a series of ‘incidents’ unfolded, impacting coastal nations that are members of the EU and NATO.

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Pages: 12

Moldova, Another Headache for EU

By Nina Bachkatov

Since 1992, Moldova has remained largely overlooked by Westerners, confined to a realm of obscurity within Central Europe. Its borders, which have shifted throughout centuries, only gained attention after the collapse of the Soviet Union. With a population speaking Moldovan/Romanian and Russian, the latter also serving as the lingua franca for minorities, Moldova is widely regarded as the poorest country in Europe, with an estimated population of 2.2 to 2.5 million. Despite its peculiarities, it was in this very country that 47 European leaders, including the 27 EU members and 20 guests as diverse as the U.K., Turkey, and Andorra, convened on June 1 for the second meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). This gathering was marked by its symbolic significance on multiple fronts.

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Pages: 12

Zelensky’s Diplomatic Gamble: Seeking Support in a Divided World

By Nina Bachkatov

On May 26th, Mikhailo Podolzhak, a trusted aide to President Zelensky, stated during an interview with an Italian channel that the Ukrainian counter-offensive “has been underway for several days”. This statement supported the speculation that a summer counter-offensive had replaced the much-anticipated “spring counter-offensive.” The Ukrainian offensive began in early May with heavy shelling targeting Russian defense lines, border villages, and even infrastructures deeper into Russian territory. During this period, both sides engaged in an unprecedented use of drones, with reports of thousands of drones being deployed. These drones varied in size and sophistication, ranging from small, unsophisticated devices to more advanced ones. The drones not only inflicted casualties but also created an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty.

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Pages: 12

Still Waiting for the Ukrainian Counter-offensive

By Nina Bachkatov

For weeks, the late spring Ukrainian counter-offensive has the object of intense speculation as it has been in late September, when the fall of Kherson seemed to pave the way for a roll back of Russian troops. But the situation is different today. During the winter, the West has responded to president Zelensky’s requests for the delivery of sophisticated offensive and defensive weaponry, and trained thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to man them. In those conditions, Ukrainian forces should be able to succeed in a counter-offensive, providing their country with a strong position at the negotiation table. In the meantime, the West has been scouting the world, to find ammunitions compatible with Ukrainian guns, sometimes bidding against each other or using dubious intermediaries. The Ukrainian forces consume ammunitions in huge quantities, which means more of it before and after the counter-offensive’s start.

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Pages: 12