Tag: Nato

A disconcerting war summer

By Nina Bachkatov

July and August were anything but uneventful in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The summer began poorly for Ukraine, yet by the end of August, Russian citizens were witnessing their refineries ablaze as far east as Omsk, while 120,000 people were evacuated from the Kursk region. Despite these setbacks, Russia’s advance in the Donbas continued, accompanied by relentless waves of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, leaving entire regions without electricity for much of the day. In this fraught context, President Zelensky’s plan for a second Peace Conference in November has come under scrutiny. Initially envisioned to include a Russian delegation and representatives of the “Global South,” the feasibility of the conference now seems uncertain. Meanwhile, President Putin remains steadfast in portraying Russia as under attack by Ukrainian terrorists backed by NATO, cyclically emphasising Russia’s status as a nuclear superpower.

Even the optimists now fear that the cycle of destruction and death will persist, fueled by a growing thirst for revenge in both Ukrainian and Russian societies. Rationality appears only one part of the equation when considering the non-exhaustive list of this summer’s developments.

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A third year of war on European soil

By Nina Bachkatov

It is uncommon to “commemorate” the invasion of a country still under occupation and subjected to daily bombings by its neighbour. However, the war in Ukraine has followed an unconventional pattern due to political and military fluctuations since February 2022. The stark reality is that no one has presented the “innovative” approach called for by General Zaluzhny in his notable December 2023 letter to the American magazine Time. This notion has been reiterated during commemorations to emphasise the inadequacy of persisting with the same approach, albeit with improved equipment and greater coordination. The fact is that the year 2023 did not unfold as anticipated, and the prospects for 2024 appear uncertain for both internal and international reasons.

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From Ukraine to the Middle East: a Geopolitical Puzzle

By Nina Bachkatov

Since February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has demonstrated a knack for urging his allies to confront uncomfortable questions while maintaining an unusual level of sympathy in international relations. Even when allies disapproved of Ukraine’s undiplomatic approaches, they stood by their original commitment: “we will support Ukraine as long as it takes.” Zelensky’s rallying cry, asserting that Ukraine is not just fighting for its survival but protecting the entire European continent and beyond from a plot to destroy democracy, resonated strongly. However, a shift occurred when Hamas launched a brutal attack, killing civilians and taking hostages, leading Israel into a conflict with the group.

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Kazakhstan: the multivector diplomacy’s boomerang

By Nina Bachkatov

The intervention by the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) has been declared “mission accomplished”. Kazakhstan’s President Tokaev has reinforced his grip on power at the cost of his predecessor’s circles, thanks to a division of work between CSTO forces securizing military installations and official buildings, and national forces restoring public order. Tokaev took the lesson that even Kazakhstanis revulsed by the brutality of rioters share the frustration and anger of the demonstrators. Hence his call on businessmen and rich people to contribute a National Fund to share prosperity with the majority who did not benefit from their country’s development. 

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The eastern partnership under test

By Nina Bachkatov

The15 December meeting of the Eastern Partnership’s members was not a success, and could not have been when political, economic and military lines have been further blurred by tension between Russia and one of its core members – Ukraine. At least it took place, but the discussions and the general tone after the meeting provided another signal that European external affairs are split into a growing array of actors and interests. Parallelly to this summit, the European Council held a summit with Russia toping the agenda. Thanks to the increasingly aggressive foreign policy of Vladimir Putin, EU leaders managed to come with a unified position about new sanctions to apply in case Russia would invade Ukraine.

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EU-Russia: no Biden effect

By Nina Bachkatov

The last-minute proposal of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron on the eve of the 24-25 June EU summit backfired, exposing the growing inability of Europeans to find a common foreign policy, notably with Russia. Their intent was noble; their method wrong. Their clumsy, and arrogant, attempt to extract a new framework for EU relations with Moscow was breaking all EU protocol rules, showing the limits of the much tutted “Franco-German couple” and the emotional dimension that still drives new members towards Russia. Continue reading “EU-Russia: no Biden effect”

Competition in the Arctic

By Nina Bachkatov

Russia seized upon the incident in the Suez Canal to remember the world that it exists another shipping route between Asia and the European continent – along its northern coast. It diplomatically stated the Arctic route as “a complement, not a rival, nor an alternative” to Suez. In the present tense relation between Russia and the West, with China’s growing assertiveness in the background, this shipping route, entirely on Russian territory, was added to the long list of “Russian threats” to the “free world”. Paradoxically, the opening of a complete Northern sea route would result from the global warming that international cooperation is supposed to fight and the consequent acceleration of Northern seas’ melting – not from Kremlin’s plots. Continue reading “Competition in the Arctic”