Tag: Energy

Russian energy back on the EU agenda

By Nina Bachkatov

Everything appeared to be proceeding according to a well-scripted agenda, unfolding through months of indecision, bravado, and uncertainty. The war in Ukraine remained challenging on the front line, yet political and financial support remained unwavering. Few had taken seriously President Trump’s electoral promise to resolve the conflict within 24 hours by presenting President Putin with a deal he could not refuse. The EU was on course to adopt a 16th package of sanctions, bolstered by indications that the Russian economy and budget were facing increasing difficulties in balancing the cost of the war.

Although the package also reflects a lack of creative political alternatives, Brussels remains firmly committed to sanctions, particularly in the energy sector, adhering to its decision to eliminate Russian fossil fuels by 2027. On 4 February, undeterred by Kyiv’s military setbacks and galvanised by the need to respond to President Trump’s geopolitical pronouncements, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her equivalent of an inaugural speech. The content had been previewed a week earlier at the EU Ambassadors’ Conference. Her “Competitive Compass” is not significantly different from other “roadmaps” the EU is fond of producing. However, one of its four “concrete measures” to stimulate the continent’s economy over the next five years specifically addresses lowering energy costs.

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Another step out of Russia

By Nina Bachkatov

President Zelensky hailed as “historic” the cessation of Russian gas exports through Ukraine on January 1. The five-year transit contract, signed at the end of 2019, had been maintained even after Russia’s invasion, as Ukraine sought to “demonstrate its reliability as a partner to Europe”. On 19st December 2024, President Zelensky confirmed that the contract would not be renewed, stating it was a move aimed at undermining Russia’s war effort. However, he said little about the potential economic consequences for Ukraine, including the loss of transit fees, the inability to siphon deliveries en route to the EU as in the past, and the heightened risk of Russian attacks on pipeline infrastructure. He also categorically ruled out transporting Russian gas disguised as Azerbaijani via Ukrainian pipelines.

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Another year EU-Russia energy war

 By Nina Bachkatov

According to European leaders’, the sanctions against Russian energy producers and exporters have reached their goals – depleting Russian’s national budget, which depends for almost half from energy’s trade, and finances the war in Ukraine. They rejoice that those sanctions provided EU with an incitant to drastically reform its energy sector. But that leaves open the question concerning the intermediary period, which will start in early 2023, especially if the West is not backed by other countries. Despite pressures, a majority of states still refuse to join sanctions that might threat their national interests, and are not ready to threat Vladimir Putin as the pariah president of a failed state. They also see the present crisis as an opportunity to increase their shares of the global market and their geopolitical profiles, to diversify their investments and their industrial basis.

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Energy’s latest chapter of EU-Russia relations

By Nina Bachkatov

The present global energy crisis might offer an opportunity for EU and Russian to move towards a softer dialogue after years of tensions, during which gas has been an increasing element of distrust, among many others. Progress will require to move away from mutual accusation of blackmail and of weaponing energy, and a radical change of mindset from two partners entrenched in a zero-sum game.

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Political energy again dividing Russia and Belarus – differently

By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson

The latest energy crisis between Russia and Belarus followed a yearly routine, with partners discovering at the end of December that new contracts for energy deliveries have not been signed for next year. As usually, disagreements concern the prices that the producer wants to obtain and those the clients is ready to pay. From gas deliveries, the clash extended to oil. Continue reading “Political energy again dividing Russia and Belarus – differently”

The odd trio again: gas, Russia, Ukraine

By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson

The war that never started was averted thanks to an agreement signed ahead of the 31 December deadline. The negotiations concerned gas deliveries, but in fact they have to be seen against a larger background involving Ukraine-Russia bilateral relations; relations of both countries with EU; and divisions inside EU about everything concerning Russia. Continue reading “The odd trio again: gas, Russia, Ukraine”

President Zelensky trapped in Washington intrigues

By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson

For the second time since the surprise election of Donald Trump, the fight between the Democrats and president Trump is being fought in Ukraine. First, the Muller inquiry put its teeth into the business of Paul Manafort, briefly member of Trump’s campaign team, who made millions in Ukraine, including by orchestrating the election campaign of “pro-Russian” Yanukovich who defeated “pro-Western” Yushchenko. Continue reading “President Zelensky trapped in Washington intrigues”