Another ‘Historic Meeting’ – This Time in Vilnius

By Nina Bachkatov

The NATO summit held in Vilnius in 2023 has been hailed as a “historic summit”. It projected the image of 31 resolute Alliance members, meeting under tight security measures in a city emptied of its inhabitants but adorned with blue and yellow colors. The tensions preceding the summit were so high that, unlike traditional international gatherings, the final communiqué remained a mystery until the end of each session. Eventually, common sense prevailed, and it was acknowledged that there is a difference between public debates and private exchanges, during which frank differences can be expressed, notably between the cautious President Biden and the openly disappointed President Zelensky. Furthermore, national leaders became aware of the political risks they faced at home as the cost of aid to Ukraine skyrocketed. Hence, the importance of communication tailored directly to their citizens, emphasizing certain catchphrases that would resonate with their respective countries’ media.

During these tense hours, the typically stern-faced Secretary General Stoltenberg acted as a welcoming and affable host, ensuring that everyone had their place in the family-like exchanges and the final photo. His demeanor played a role in projecting a sense of strength and unity regarding NATO enlargement around the Baltic Sea and the agreement to provide billions of dollars in new military aid and security measures for Ukraine, which were the focal points of the agenda.

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A NATO Summit Confronting the Future of European Security

By Nina Bachkatov

Tensions have been steadily escalating in the lead-up to the NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July. While both Washington and Brussels share the common objective of securing the European continent, which now includes Ukraine, and safeguarding the democratic world, they differ in their diplomatic, political, and financial approaches to achieve these goals. Furthermore, their perspectives diverge on China, a country positioning itself as the primary beneficiary of the deteriorating relations between EU institutions, European capitals, and Russia due to the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. This apprehensive climate has led to nuanced expressions through official statements, orchestrated leaks, and interviews. There is a concern that the outcomes of the summit will leave everyone dissatisfied.

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Moldova, Another Headache for EU

By Nina Bachkatov

Since 1992, Moldova has remained largely overlooked by Westerners, confined to a realm of obscurity within Central Europe. Its borders, which have shifted throughout centuries, only gained attention after the collapse of the Soviet Union. With a population speaking Moldovan/Romanian and Russian, the latter also serving as the lingua franca for minorities, Moldova is widely regarded as the poorest country in Europe, with an estimated population of 2.2 to 2.5 million. Despite its peculiarities, it was in this very country that 47 European leaders, including the 27 EU members and 20 guests as diverse as the U.K., Turkey, and Andorra, convened on June 1 for the second meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). This gathering was marked by its symbolic significance on multiple fronts.

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Zelensky’s Diplomatic Gamble: Seeking Support in a Divided World

By Nina Bachkatov

On May 26th, Mikhailo Podolzhak, a trusted aide to President Zelensky, stated during an interview with an Italian channel that the Ukrainian counter-offensive “has been underway for several days”. This statement supported the speculation that a summer counter-offensive had replaced the much-anticipated “spring counter-offensive.” The Ukrainian offensive began in early May with heavy shelling targeting Russian defense lines, border villages, and even infrastructures deeper into Russian territory. During this period, both sides engaged in an unprecedented use of drones, with reports of thousands of drones being deployed. These drones varied in size and sophistication, ranging from small, unsophisticated devices to more advanced ones. The drones not only inflicted casualties but also created an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty.

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E.U. attempt to unlock the Karabakh Issue

The president of the EU Council Charles Michel wanted a discreet meeting; he got it, but not for the reasons he wanted. He had invited Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliev and Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinian for a trilateral meeting in Brussels on 13-14 May. But, the same week-end, all attention were on the elections in Turkey and the impromptu visits of Ukrainian president Zelensky through European national capitals – not to the stability in Caucasus. Anyway, the meeting has participated to the ‘normalisation process’. On 1 June, Pashinian and Aliev shall meet France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz in Chisinau, on the sidelines of the summit of the European Political Community. Moscow has just reminded that the trilateral agreements it signed with Baku and Yerevan after the ‘second Karabakh war’ of 2020 remain the only basis for the settlement” of relations between the two South Caucasus countries.

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May Celebrations Cancelled, a Symbolic Victory for Ukrainians

By Nina Bachkatov

While speculations about the Ukrainian counter-offensive are mounting up, the Kremlin’s decision to “downplay” the celebrations of 1st and 9th May offered an unexpected bonus for president Zelensky, just confronted with leaked unflattering American Intelligence reports questioning the preparedness of its armed forces and the wisdom of some decisions. Those 2 days are really popular dates on Russians’ calendar, each with its specificity. The 1st of May, the Day of Workers and Peasants in Soviet times, is a civilian event, with an accent on the international dimension of a day celebrated through all the world. The 9 May is different, the anniversary of the 1945 victory against Nazism in Europe, remembered a day later than in the West due to different time zones. The day includes a military parade in the morning followed by waves of festive crowds, taking over the boulevards and public parcs. Since 2012, a third element has been added – a cortege of ordinary people carrying pictures of relatives killed during WWII, known as The Immortal Regiment.

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Still Waiting for the Ukrainian Counter-offensive

By Nina Bachkatov

For weeks, the late spring Ukrainian counter-offensive has the object of intense speculation as it has been in late September, when the fall of Kherson seemed to pave the way for a roll back of Russian troops. But the situation is different today. During the winter, the West has responded to president Zelensky’s requests for the delivery of sophisticated offensive and defensive weaponry, and trained thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to man them. In those conditions, Ukrainian forces should be able to succeed in a counter-offensive, providing their country with a strong position at the negotiation table. In the meantime, the West has been scouting the world, to find ammunitions compatible with Ukrainian guns, sometimes bidding against each other or using dubious intermediaries. The Ukrainian forces consume ammunitions in huge quantities, which means more of it before and after the counter-offensive’s start.

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