EU-UKRAINE:  Balancing Values and Economic Realities

By Nina Bachkatov

The EU summit on 1st February was anticipated to be challenging, with negotiations expected to extend until the last minute to mend the fallout from the inconclusive December summit. The primary agenda includes reaching an agreement on a revised 2021-2027 EU budget to support recovery, encompassing a 50-billion-euro four-year aid package to Ukraine, distinct from other forms of aid. The first requires unanimity among the 27 member states, while the second may face opposition from Hungary but could be legally maneuvered. Following the failure of the December EU summit and the postponement of an anticipated $61 billion military aid by the American Congress, President Zelensky initiated a diplomatic offensive in Europe and beyond, emphasizing the global significance of countering Russia in Ukraine. So far, the “allies” have contributed a total of $246 billion to Ukraine, covering arms, financial aid, and support for social needs on the ground, including refugees.

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No peace in sight in the Eastern front

By Nina Bachkatov

The year 2024 started with good news: 248 Russian and 224 Ukrainian soldiers were exchanged, the first since 7 August. In the meantime, as big prisoner exchanges had been frozen, the only way captured soldiers can make it back to their own side was, and still is, through informal battlefield swaps between commanders. This practice, and the discretion of military authorities, makes impossible any estimates of the number of POWs, certainly many thousands. Kyiv and Moscow claim that the ‘enemy’ is manipulating the prisoners’ issue for their own political motives. The families are less and less inhibited to question their respective authorities to accelerate the negotiations about exchanges – even if the released soldiers are sent back to the front.

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NKO Does not Exist Anymore

By Nina Bachkatov

From 23 to 27 October, the EU agendas will include a large chapter about the situation in the Caucasus, first at EU Ministerial level then during an EU summit. The problem is that the main regional conflict has been settled the oldest way, at gun point. On 19 September 2023, it took 24 hours for Azerbaijan forces to push the separatist armed forces to surrender. They had never recovered from the devastating 2020 “second war” when their soldiers were shot like rabbits by a restructured Azerbaijani army equipped with Turkish drones. Almost 2 years ago, this “44 days war” which costed 6.500 lives ended in 2 stages: on 10 October with a ceasefire negotiated by Russia which did not prevent fighting to continue, albeit at a lower intensity; and on 9 November 2020, when the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents signed an armistice agreement in Moscow. 

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From Ukraine to the Middle East: a Geopolitical Puzzle

By Nina Bachkatov

Since February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has demonstrated a knack for urging his allies to confront uncomfortable questions while maintaining an unusual level of sympathy in international relations. Even when allies disapproved of Ukraine’s undiplomatic approaches, they stood by their original commitment: “we will support Ukraine as long as it takes.” Zelensky’s rallying cry, asserting that Ukraine is not just fighting for its survival but protecting the entire European continent and beyond from a plot to destroy democracy, resonated strongly. However, a shift occurred when Hamas launched a brutal attack, killing civilians and taking hostages, leading Israel into a conflict with the group.

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The War Moving Deep into the Black Sea

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, attention shifted swiftly from the Ukrainian land front to the Crimea Peninsula, and subsequently, encompassed the entire Black Sea’s “strategic region.” This transition transpired so rapidly that by March, it remained conceivable to title the situation as “Crimea: the end of a taboo.” Six months later, Ukrainian drones and missiles have become a regular presence, targeting Crimea’s infrastructure and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In the interim, a series of ‘incidents’ unfolded, impacting coastal nations that are members of the EU and NATO.

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Ukraine’s Election Plans Hindered by Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

In a summer fraught with geopolitical tension, Ukraine finds itself grappling with a disrupted electoral schedule. Originally slated for parliamentary elections in October and a presidential vote in March 2024, the shadow of the ongoing conflict looms large over the nation’s political landscape. As early September unfolds, hopes for a much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive gaining momentum cast uncertainty over the feasibility of conducting a fair election. The conflict has left millions of Ukrainians as internal refugees or residing abroad, making voter registration an arduous task with many official documents lost to the ravages of war.

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Ukraine: Reconstruction Amid Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

Daily devastation and loss of life persist in Ukraine as the counter-offensive rages on, with no decisive outcome at present. Optimists are now openly acknowledging the possibility of military operations continuing until 2024 or longer. Despite the ongoing war with no end in sight, the urgent issue of reconstruction has become a paramount concern for Ukraine’s survival, placing the burden on the ‘Friends of Ukraine’ group. This paradoxical situation might be a way for the West to reframe its unwavering support for Ukraine, extending far beyond military assistance.

Since the fall of Kherson in September 22 and subsequent events in spring 23, even with the supply of sophisticated offensive weapons, the expected counter-offensive failed to materialise, leaving Kiev unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Additionally, public expressions of frustration emerged during the NATO Vilnius summit between Ukrainian and Western representatives. More recently, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and escalating tensions in the Black Sea have further complicated the situation.

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