On-line Intelligence Bulletin of the European Press Agency
By Andrew Wilson and Nina Bachkatov
For a man described as isolated on the world stage, President Putin has been shaking a lot of hands in the course of a week. The most predictable was his meeting with German chancellor Angela Merkel, in the President’s Sochi summer residence on 2 May. Continue reading “Diplomatic defile in Moscow – Russia at work on a Syrian solution”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
The US missile strike on the Syrian base of Shayrat has given Moscow its first real lesson about the personality and leadership of President Trump. The strike fulfils Russians’ worst fears by showing that:
(1) Trump is versatile. One day he hints that President Assad might be used as an interlocutor in finding a political solution to the Syrian conflict; the next day he rushes to a dramatic military response to an irresponsible chemical attack on civilians. Continue reading “Syria and Russia trapped by Assad?”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
The current mobilisation in Belarus’ streets demonstrates once again how social tensions can quickly morph into political contestations. But speaking of a Minsk Maidan seems a step too far for the moment. Continue reading “Belarus: beset with change”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
The 13 March provisional agreement between Gazprom and the European Commission represents a return to economics in the complex energy relation between Russia and the European Union. Continue reading “Gazprom and UE, a return to the reason”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
Since late 2016, questions have raised about the way Putin’s Russia can, or cannot, mark the dual centenaries of the February and October revolutions. The need for caution is all too obvious. The history of the Revolution “that shocked the world” has never been simply a matter for historians – in the West, just as in the communist world. Continue reading “1917 – A problematic celebration”
Everyone loses: The Ukraine crisis and the ruinous contest for post-Soviet Eurasia, by Samuel Charap and Timothy J.Colton. International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Recently rewed fighting between rebel and government forces in eastern Ukraine calls attention to the costs for all parties of their struggle for control of the territory. Samuel Charap is a Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the IISS. Timothy Colton a Professor of Government and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. In their extensive and generally impartial appraisal, it helps to pick out examples. Continue reading “About the Ukraine crisis: everyone loses”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
Once again, attention is fixed on Ukraine, for both domestic and international reasons. On 29 January, heavy fighting broke out in Eastern Ukraine, around the government-controlled industrial town of Avdiivka and separatist-controlled railway hub of Yasynuvata. The rupture of the December ceasefire, which killed more than 30 people, can reignite the whole Donetsk region. But this time, the international dimension is paramount, thanks to the election in America of president Donald Trump – as well as uncertainty about impending elections in countries of the European Union and the course of the Brexit negotiations. Continue reading “Ukraine – In the Trump era”