Lucerne: Zelensky’s diplomatic challenge

By Nina Bachkatov

A “Peace Summit” in Ukraine will be held in Switzerland on June 15-16, following a request made by President Zelensky in January. The Ukrainian president expects participants to discuss the 10-point peace plan he presented to President Biden in December 2022, and subsequently to the G7, G20, and other international organisations, when the military situation was more favorable. Now, with the expectation that the war might extend to 2025 or beyond, this meeting poses a significant diplomatic challenge for Zelensky. He envisions a global pro-Ukrainian, anti-Russian bloc, including not only Western allies but also states that have so far maintained an ambiguous neutrality.

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Ukraine better armed, with caveat

President Biden’s decision to allow Ukrainians to strike inside Russian territory using American munitions took everyone by surprise. This move followed US Secretary of State Blinken’s unexpected visit to Kyiv on May 14. Blinken was reportedly shocked by the situation on the ground as detailed by President Zelensky, including the rapid progression of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region and devastating attacks on Ukraine’s second-largest city. This is not only a human catastrophe but also a significant blow to Kharkiv, an industrial and research center crucial for the country’s future reconstruction. Moreover, the advance of Russian forces beyond the 2014 front line jeopardises the West’s goal of pressuring Moscow to negotiate from a position of weakness.

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The battlefield and political front: a shifting landscape

By Nina Bachkatov

The recent Russian offensive spanning the border between Belgorod and Kharkiv regions has ignited a flurry of discussions among Western observers, centering on terms like “strategic turn” and “historic shift.” These conversations gain particular significance against the backdrop of political upheavals in Moscow and Kyiv. However, the pivotal moment arrived from Washington. On April 21st, the US House of Representatives finally greenlit the long-delayed $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Shortly thereafter, on May 14th, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a significant visit to Kyiv. President Biden’s swift enactment of the aid package, just three days after the congressional approval, fueled speculation about the quick deployment of American arms from European bases to Ukraine. Later, Blinken’s unexpected return on April 21st coincided with escalating Russian advances near Kharkiv.

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EU Takes Further Steps in Caucasus – Amid Risks

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, Armenia and Azerbaijan are poised to engage deeply in negotiations over border delineation, aiming to quell three decades of conflict regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, where repeated rounds of talks have proven fruitless. Despite the involvement of various regional powers, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the European Union has also sought to contribute. However, the EU has struggled to reconcile its role as just one actor among many in the former Soviet Union, including the Caucasus. The complexity of the situation on the ground, often underestimated from Brussels, underscores the potential for even minor actions to trigger significant internal and external ramifications.

Nevertheless, the EU possesses a specific mechanism for engagement through the Eastern Partnership (E.P.), which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Established at the Prague summit in May 2009, the E.P. offers additional funding in exchange for reforms in countries. Belarus has been removed from the list due to President Lukashenko’s regime; Ukraine and Moldova have pursued distinct paths.

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The Kremlin challenged in a Moscow suburb

Two weeks after the March 22 attack in Moscow, the official inquiry has yet to reach a conclusion. What is certain is that the assailants killed more than 143 people, either by shooting them at point-blank range or engulfing them in the fire they ignited. Four men have been brought before the court, their arrests shrouded in conflicting circumstances. In images captured within the tribunal, they appeared severely beaten, with one in a semi-comatose state. This unsettling scene not only raises questions about the methods of the Russian police but also suggests political motives in circulating such a degrading portrayal.

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Russia’s election under unprecedent control

By Nina Bachkatov

Rarely has an election, derided as a mere formality, garnered such extensive attention. From March 15th to 17th, Russian voters are tasked with selecting their next president from a slate of four candidates: the incumbent Vladimir Putin, Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party. It is widely anticipated that Putin will secure victory in the first round, with predictions suggesting he will capture approximately 75% of the vote. Liberal factions have been significantly weakened through arrests, exile, and even fatalities.

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A third year of war on European soil

By Nina Bachkatov

It is uncommon to “commemorate” the invasion of a country still under occupation and subjected to daily bombings by its neighbour. However, the war in Ukraine has followed an unconventional pattern due to political and military fluctuations since February 2022. The stark reality is that no one has presented the “innovative” approach called for by General Zaluzhny in his notable December 2023 letter to the American magazine Time. This notion has been reiterated during commemorations to emphasise the inadequacy of persisting with the same approach, albeit with improved equipment and greater coordination. The fact is that the year 2023 did not unfold as anticipated, and the prospects for 2024 appear uncertain for both internal and international reasons.

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