On-line Intelligence Bulletin of the European Press Agency
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
Recent revelations by American media show once again how the lack of proper human intelligence concerning Russia and Russians plays a central role in the world’s growing tension and lack of trust. Continue reading “Dangerous failures of Humint”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
Vladimir Putin has always wanted to appear to the world as an “equal partner” of the American president. But he never forgets that there are three partners in this tango – the two presidents, and American public opinion. Continue reading “A strange summit in Helsinki”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
The Western intervention in Syria tested the “new” Vladimir Putin – between his reelection and inauguration. He seems much the same person, preparing for the next stage of political developments while not controlling fully the existing situation. There was not much he could have done to prevent the Western intervention. After the diatribes of president Trump, Russia raised the red flag on various fronts with declarations by a few generals, by the foreign minister and some ambassadors, by a few political figures, and by Putin himself – all making the expected statements, each in their roles. Continue reading “The Syrian imbroglio – Putin’s cautious reaction to Western bombs”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
By any standards, the annual Address to Parliament delivered by President Putin on 1 of March was unusual, by the content and the form. The Address is one of the three public presidential high moments, with the end of the year press conference and the “meeting with the nation”. It is an opportunity for the president to present his track record and his projects. In an electoral period, everyone expected the 2018 edition to be different. But nobody was prepared for so much emphasis on military issues, in a high-tech décor including a projection full of military hardware and explosions, delivered by a president adopting a tone of voice remembering his intervention at the 2007 Munich Conference which stunned the West by its violence. Continue reading “Putin strange address to the Nation”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
The US missile strike on the Syrian base of Shayrat has given Moscow its first real lesson about the personality and leadership of President Trump. The strike fulfils Russians’ worst fears by showing that:
(1) Trump is versatile. One day he hints that President Assad might be used as an interlocutor in finding a political solution to the Syrian conflict; the next day he rushes to a dramatic military response to an irresponsible chemical attack on civilians. Continue reading “Syria and Russia trapped by Assad?”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
Once again, attention is fixed on Ukraine, for both domestic and international reasons. On 29 January, heavy fighting broke out in Eastern Ukraine, around the government-controlled industrial town of Avdiivka and separatist-controlled railway hub of Yasynuvata. The rupture of the December ceasefire, which killed more than 30 people, can reignite the whole Donetsk region. But this time, the international dimension is paramount, thanks to the election in America of president Donald Trump – as well as uncertainty about impending elections in countries of the European Union and the course of the Brexit negotiations. Continue reading “Ukraine – In the Trump era”
By Nina Bachkatov and Andrew Wilson
As predicted, the latest summit between EU and Ukraine (24-25 November) ended with a lot of warm words about “strengthening the partnership” and “EU support for Ukraine’s reformist efforts”. This is almost verbatim what was heard during numerous previous meetings, notably during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko, another leader elected on the enthusiasm of a Maidan revolution, who has since vanished in oblivion. Continue reading “The November EU/Ukraine summit: Grounds for caution”