Category: Russia

No peace in sight in the Eastern front

By Nina Bachkatov

The year 2024 started with good news: 248 Russian and 224 Ukrainian soldiers were exchanged, the first since 7 August. In the meantime, as big prisoner exchanges had been frozen, the only way captured soldiers can make it back to their own side was, and still is, through informal battlefield swaps between commanders. This practice, and the discretion of military authorities, makes impossible any estimates of the number of POWs, certainly many thousands. Kyiv and Moscow claim that the ‘enemy’ is manipulating the prisoners’ issue for their own political motives. The families are less and less inhibited to question their respective authorities to accelerate the negotiations about exchanges – even if the released soldiers are sent back to the front.

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The War Moving Deep into the Black Sea

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, attention shifted swiftly from the Ukrainian land front to the Crimea Peninsula, and subsequently, encompassed the entire Black Sea’s “strategic region.” This transition transpired so rapidly that by March, it remained conceivable to title the situation as “Crimea: the end of a taboo.” Six months later, Ukrainian drones and missiles have become a regular presence, targeting Crimea’s infrastructure and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In the interim, a series of ‘incidents’ unfolded, impacting coastal nations that are members of the EU and NATO.

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Ukraine’s Election Plans Hindered by Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

In a summer fraught with geopolitical tension, Ukraine finds itself grappling with a disrupted electoral schedule. Originally slated for parliamentary elections in October and a presidential vote in March 2024, the shadow of the ongoing conflict looms large over the nation’s political landscape. As early September unfolds, hopes for a much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive gaining momentum cast uncertainty over the feasibility of conducting a fair election. The conflict has left millions of Ukrainians as internal refugees or residing abroad, making voter registration an arduous task with many official documents lost to the ravages of war.

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Ukraine: Reconstruction Amid Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

Daily devastation and loss of life persist in Ukraine as the counter-offensive rages on, with no decisive outcome at present. Optimists are now openly acknowledging the possibility of military operations continuing until 2024 or longer. Despite the ongoing war with no end in sight, the urgent issue of reconstruction has become a paramount concern for Ukraine’s survival, placing the burden on the ‘Friends of Ukraine’ group. This paradoxical situation might be a way for the West to reframe its unwavering support for Ukraine, extending far beyond military assistance.

Since the fall of Kherson in September 22 and subsequent events in spring 23, even with the supply of sophisticated offensive weapons, the expected counter-offensive failed to materialise, leaving Kiev unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Additionally, public expressions of frustration emerged during the NATO Vilnius summit between Ukrainian and Western representatives. More recently, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and escalating tensions in the Black Sea have further complicated the situation.

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Zelensky’s Diplomatic Gamble: Seeking Support in a Divided World

By Nina Bachkatov

On May 26th, Mikhailo Podolzhak, a trusted aide to President Zelensky, stated during an interview with an Italian channel that the Ukrainian counter-offensive “has been underway for several days”. This statement supported the speculation that a summer counter-offensive had replaced the much-anticipated “spring counter-offensive.” The Ukrainian offensive began in early May with heavy shelling targeting Russian defense lines, border villages, and even infrastructures deeper into Russian territory. During this period, both sides engaged in an unprecedented use of drones, with reports of thousands of drones being deployed. These drones varied in size and sophistication, ranging from small, unsophisticated devices to more advanced ones. The drones not only inflicted casualties but also created an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty.

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May Celebrations Cancelled, a Symbolic Victory for Ukrainians

By Nina Bachkatov

While speculations about the Ukrainian counter-offensive are mounting up, the Kremlin’s decision to “downplay” the celebrations of 1st and 9th May offered an unexpected bonus for president Zelensky, just confronted with leaked unflattering American Intelligence reports questioning the preparedness of its armed forces and the wisdom of some decisions. Those 2 days are really popular dates on Russians’ calendar, each with its specificity. The 1st of May, the Day of Workers and Peasants in Soviet times, is a civilian event, with an accent on the international dimension of a day celebrated through all the world. The 9 May is different, the anniversary of the 1945 victory against Nazism in Europe, remembered a day later than in the West due to different time zones. The day includes a military parade in the morning followed by waves of festive crowds, taking over the boulevards and public parcs. Since 2012, a third element has been added – a cortege of ordinary people carrying pictures of relatives killed during WWII, known as The Immortal Regiment.

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Still Waiting for the Ukrainian Counter-offensive

By Nina Bachkatov

For weeks, the late spring Ukrainian counter-offensive has the object of intense speculation as it has been in late September, when the fall of Kherson seemed to pave the way for a roll back of Russian troops. But the situation is different today. During the winter, the West has responded to president Zelensky’s requests for the delivery of sophisticated offensive and defensive weaponry, and trained thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to man them. In those conditions, Ukrainian forces should be able to succeed in a counter-offensive, providing their country with a strong position at the negotiation table. In the meantime, the West has been scouting the world, to find ammunitions compatible with Ukrainian guns, sometimes bidding against each other or using dubious intermediaries. The Ukrainian forces consume ammunitions in huge quantities, which means more of it before and after the counter-offensive’s start.

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