Author: Nina Bachkatov

From Munich to Riyadh: More Than Just the Ukraine Test For E.U.

By Nina Bachkatov

A week of geopolitical upheaval has dramatically altered how Ukraine and its allies intended to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The catalyst was former President Donald Trump’s blunt revelation that he had spoken for 90 minutes with Russian President Vladimir Putin—an announcement that came as a complete surprise to both Ukraine and the European Union, who were only informed after the fact. Trump’s message was unambiguous: Ukraine will not join NATO; the United States will not deploy troops but supports European nations doing so; Russia will retain control over occupied territories; and American assistance to Ukraine will be dictated by U.S. financial interests. Moreover, Washington and Moscow would hold further talks in Saudi Arabia.

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Russian energy back on the EU agenda

By Nina Bachkatov

Everything appeared to be proceeding according to a well-scripted agenda, unfolding through months of indecision, bravado, and uncertainty. The war in Ukraine remained challenging on the front line, yet political and financial support remained unwavering. Few had taken seriously President Trump’s electoral promise to resolve the conflict within 24 hours by presenting President Putin with a deal he could not refuse. The EU was on course to adopt a 16th package of sanctions, bolstered by indications that the Russian economy and budget were facing increasing difficulties in balancing the cost of the war.

Although the package also reflects a lack of creative political alternatives, Brussels remains firmly committed to sanctions, particularly in the energy sector, adhering to its decision to eliminate Russian fossil fuels by 2027. On 4 February, undeterred by Kyiv’s military setbacks and galvanised by the need to respond to President Trump’s geopolitical pronouncements, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her equivalent of an inaugural speech. The content had been previewed a week earlier at the EU Ambassadors’ Conference. Her “Competitive Compass” is not significantly different from other “roadmaps” the EU is fond of producing. However, one of its four “concrete measures” to stimulate the continent’s economy over the next five years specifically addresses lowering energy costs.

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Trump and the Kremlin: the Largely Blackboard

By Nina Bachkatov

On 20 January, from their respective capitals, President Putin and President Zelensky congratulated President Trump on his inauguration. Both spoke of peace, albeit with differing qualifications: for the Ukrainian leader, a “just peace”; for the Russian, a “lasting peace”. Trump envisions dialogue between Washington and Moscow—not Kyiv and Brussels—as central to his approach. The new president views himself as a peacemaker, pointing to his success in pressuring the Israeli prime minister to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas as evidence that similar pressure on Zelensky could yield results. This is reflected in Putin’s remark that their dialogue should aim to “prevent a Third World War”.

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Another step out of Russia

By Nina Bachkatov

President Zelensky hailed as “historic” the cessation of Russian gas exports through Ukraine on January 1. The five-year transit contract, signed at the end of 2019, had been maintained even after Russia’s invasion, as Ukraine sought to “demonstrate its reliability as a partner to Europe”. On 19st December 2024, President Zelensky confirmed that the contract would not be renewed, stating it was a move aimed at undermining Russia’s war effort. However, he said little about the potential economic consequences for Ukraine, including the loss of transit fees, the inability to siphon deliveries en route to the EU as in the past, and the heightened risk of Russian attacks on pipeline infrastructure. He also categorically ruled out transporting Russian gas disguised as Azerbaijani via Ukrainian pipelines.

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Assad In Moscow, the Unwanted Guest

By Nina Bachkatov

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his annual televised Q&A session on 19 December, acknowledged that he had yet to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad but planned to do so soon. Putin dismissed speculation that the fall of the Assad regime represented a defeat for Russia or the loss of its military foothold on the Mediterranean. He conceded that the sudden collapse of Damascus without a fight had taken Russia by surprise but pointedly noted that this was true for all, including those preparing to engage not with a “democratic opposition” but with a group classified as a terrorist organisation.

On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed Brussels, emphasising that only unified action by the EU, NATO, and the US could ensure Ukraine achieves “peace through strength.” His rhetoric reflected concerns over the EU’s ability to act decisively and the unpredictability of former US President Donald Trump, who could influence NATO and exert pressure on EU members through tariffs.

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War in Ukraine: a thousand days and counting

By Nina Bachkatov

Once again, the war in Ukraine is testing the “world order.” Left on their own, Ukrainian forces are not expected to resist beyond March 2025. The country faces a stark choice: secure greater international aid to sustain the fight or pursue an appeasement with security guarantees. For months, it has been clear that Ukraine is in dire straits. The Kursk offensive did not unfold as planned by President Zelensky, and both Russia and Ukraine are straining to recruit men and produce arms. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is systematically being destroyed, leaving citizens without electricity and paralysing industrial production.

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Baku: More than Climate in Play

By Nina Bachkatov

On 11 November, COP29, the UN Climate Change Conference, commenced in Baku, scheduled to run through the 29th. While the official theme is climate finance, geopolitics has loomed large over the agenda well before the conference’s opening day. First, “climate finance” implies substantial investment from developed nations to support decarbonization in developing economies—an approach that is far from universally popular. Second, the conference begins just one week after the election of a notably climate-skeptic Donald Trump. Third, the choice of Baku—a city synonymous with energy wealth but lacking in democratic credentials—has raised questions. Finally, various delegates are under pressure to promote specific stances on global issues.

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