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NKO Does not Exist Anymore

By Nina Bachkatov

From 23 to 27 October, the EU agendas will include a large chapter about the situation in the Caucasus, first at EU Ministerial level then during an EU summit. The problem is that the main regional conflict has been settled the oldest way, at gun point. On 19 September 2023, it took 24 hours for Azerbaijan forces to push the separatist armed forces to surrender. They had never recovered from the devastating 2020 “second war” when their soldiers were shot like rabbits by a restructured Azerbaijani army equipped with Turkish drones. Almost 2 years ago, this “44 days war” which costed 6.500 lives ended in 2 stages: on 10 October with a ceasefire negotiated by Russia which did not prevent fighting to continue, albeit at a lower intensity; and on 9 November 2020, when the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents signed an armistice agreement in Moscow. 

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From Ukraine to the Middle East: a Geopolitical Puzzle

By Nina Bachkatov

Since February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky has demonstrated a knack for urging his allies to confront uncomfortable questions while maintaining an unusual level of sympathy in international relations. Even when allies disapproved of Ukraine’s undiplomatic approaches, they stood by their original commitment: “we will support Ukraine as long as it takes.” Zelensky’s rallying cry, asserting that Ukraine is not just fighting for its survival but protecting the entire European continent and beyond from a plot to destroy democracy, resonated strongly. However, a shift occurred when Hamas launched a brutal attack, killing civilians and taking hostages, leading Israel into a conflict with the group.

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The War Moving Deep into the Black Sea

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, attention shifted swiftly from the Ukrainian land front to the Crimea Peninsula, and subsequently, encompassed the entire Black Sea’s “strategic region.” This transition transpired so rapidly that by March, it remained conceivable to title the situation as “Crimea: the end of a taboo.” Six months later, Ukrainian drones and missiles have become a regular presence, targeting Crimea’s infrastructure and the Russian Black Sea Fleet. In the interim, a series of ‘incidents’ unfolded, impacting coastal nations that are members of the EU and NATO.

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Ukraine’s Election Plans Hindered by Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

In a summer fraught with geopolitical tension, Ukraine finds itself grappling with a disrupted electoral schedule. Originally slated for parliamentary elections in October and a presidential vote in March 2024, the shadow of the ongoing conflict looms large over the nation’s political landscape. As early September unfolds, hopes for a much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive gaining momentum cast uncertainty over the feasibility of conducting a fair election. The conflict has left millions of Ukrainians as internal refugees or residing abroad, making voter registration an arduous task with many official documents lost to the ravages of war.

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Ukraine: Reconstruction Amid Ongoing Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

Daily devastation and loss of life persist in Ukraine as the counter-offensive rages on, with no decisive outcome at present. Optimists are now openly acknowledging the possibility of military operations continuing until 2024 or longer. Despite the ongoing war with no end in sight, the urgent issue of reconstruction has become a paramount concern for Ukraine’s survival, placing the burden on the ‘Friends of Ukraine’ group. This paradoxical situation might be a way for the West to reframe its unwavering support for Ukraine, extending far beyond military assistance.

Since the fall of Kherson in September 22 and subsequent events in spring 23, even with the supply of sophisticated offensive weapons, the expected counter-offensive failed to materialise, leaving Kiev unable to negotiate from a position of strength. Additionally, public expressions of frustration emerged during the NATO Vilnius summit between Ukrainian and Western representatives. More recently, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and escalating tensions in the Black Sea have further complicated the situation.

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Another ‘Historic Meeting’ – This Time in Vilnius

By Nina Bachkatov

The NATO summit held in Vilnius in 2023 has been hailed as a “historic summit”. It projected the image of 31 resolute Alliance members, meeting under tight security measures in a city emptied of its inhabitants but adorned with blue and yellow colors. The tensions preceding the summit were so high that, unlike traditional international gatherings, the final communiqué remained a mystery until the end of each session. Eventually, common sense prevailed, and it was acknowledged that there is a difference between public debates and private exchanges, during which frank differences can be expressed, notably between the cautious President Biden and the openly disappointed President Zelensky. Furthermore, national leaders became aware of the political risks they faced at home as the cost of aid to Ukraine skyrocketed. Hence, the importance of communication tailored directly to their citizens, emphasizing certain catchphrases that would resonate with their respective countries’ media.

During these tense hours, the typically stern-faced Secretary General Stoltenberg acted as a welcoming and affable host, ensuring that everyone had their place in the family-like exchanges and the final photo. His demeanor played a role in projecting a sense of strength and unity regarding NATO enlargement around the Baltic Sea and the agreement to provide billions of dollars in new military aid and security measures for Ukraine, which were the focal points of the agenda.

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A NATO Summit Confronting the Future of European Security

By Nina Bachkatov

Tensions have been steadily escalating in the lead-up to the NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July. While both Washington and Brussels share the common objective of securing the European continent, which now includes Ukraine, and safeguarding the democratic world, they differ in their diplomatic, political, and financial approaches to achieve these goals. Furthermore, their perspectives diverge on China, a country positioning itself as the primary beneficiary of the deteriorating relations between EU institutions, European capitals, and Russia due to the latter’s invasion of Ukraine. This apprehensive climate has led to nuanced expressions through official statements, orchestrated leaks, and interviews. There is a concern that the outcomes of the summit will leave everyone dissatisfied.

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