By Nina Bachkatov
On 11 November, COP29, the UN Climate Change Conference, commenced in Baku, scheduled to run through the 29th. While the official theme is climate finance, geopolitics has loomed large over the agenda well before the conference’s opening day. First, “climate finance” implies substantial investment from developed nations to support decarbonization in developing economies—an approach that is far from universally popular. Second, the conference begins just one week after the election of a notably climate-skeptic Donald Trump. Third, the choice of Baku—a city synonymous with energy wealth but lacking in democratic credentials—has raised questions. Finally, various delegates are under pressure to promote specific stances on global issues.
Regardless of the conference’s outcome, its presence in Baku marks a personal victory for President Ilham Aliyev. It also serves as an opportunity to position Azerbaijan as more than a petrostate. This narrative is reinforced by grandiose venues, extensive public relations campaigns tailored for both Western and non-Western audiences, and a variety of thematic gatherings on topics such as high-tech capabilities, culture, tourism, investment potential, and Azerbaijan’s role as a bridge between East and West.
The event’s geopolitical significance means President Aliyev is also closely monitoring his alliances. Many African heads of state and leaders who attended the recent BRICS summit in Kazan are joining the summit. However, only two G7 leaders—Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer—will be present, with leaders from the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, and Japan opting out.
Controversial host
Questions surrounding Baku’s selection as host are likely to linger throughout the conference. Baku’s bid was initially expected to be vetoed by Armenia, which would have enabled the conference to be relocated without upsetting energy-rich Azerbaijan. However, in the aftermath of Armenia’s defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, Yerevan yielded to Western pressure, endorsing Baku’s candidacy as part of a broader agreement tied to peace talks and Western aid. Although steps were taken in private meetings, no formal peace agreement has still been signed.
Azerbaijan has dismissed questions over its legitimacy as host. Officials point out that only one of the previous 28 COP summits—held in Switzerland—took place in a democratic country with no substantial oil or gas interests. President Aliyev rejected criticisms of human rights abuses as interference, alleging double standards and Armenian influence on Western politicians. After the European Parliament joined the criticism, Hikmet Hajiyev, Aliyev’s foreign policy adviser, sent back the Parliament to its own “shameful corruption” and stated bluntly, “Azerbaijan has no obligations to the European Parliament, let alone the EU.”
Azerbaijan has been controlled by the Aliyev family since 1993. When health concerns led Gaidar Aliyev to step down, his son Ilham took office in 2003 and was re-elected last October with 85% of the vote. Social control and repression have grown alongside the weakening of the New Azerbaijan Party’s power, with dynastic elements continuing. Mehriban Aliyeva, the president’s wife, has been vice-president since 2017, while their children are involved in cultural and media ventures. As host of COP29, Azerbaijan signed an agreement with the UN to guarantee participants’ freedom of movement and association, including journalists, but managed to insert a clause requiring compliance with Azerbaijani laws and refraining from interference in domestic affairs.
The Energy Shadow
For President Aliyev, COP29 represents another chapter in the nation’s broader economic narrative. Historically, Baku has attracted international investment, irrespective of the governing regime. After independence, foreign companies, encouraged by their governments, eagerly courted Azerbaijan to “consolidate its independence” from Russia. The first major “energy coup” came in 1992 when former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher visited Baku at BP’s behest, signing agreements worth $30 billion, which laid the groundwork for one of BP’s most profitable contracts with SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company. In 2006, the opening of the BTC pipeline connecting Baku to the Mediterranean was celebrated in the West as a strategic win, bypassing Russian transit routes.
The EU’s recent sanctions on Russian energy and its quest for alternative sources have only deepened this relationship. On 18 July 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed an agreement in Baku to double Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU with a beaming president Aliyev. Although von der Leyen hailed Azerbaijan as a “reliable partner,” critics noted that for years Azerbaijani export commitments exceed domestic production, suggesting a reliance on third-party sources like Russia or Kazakhstan to fulfill these pledges.
Ecocide and Political Tensions
As the European Parliament joined the list of COP29 critics, some MEPs urged the cancellation of the July gas agreement. This development was one of several last-minute twists.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to highlight the environmental destruction, or “ecocide,” inflicted by Russia war, estimating damages at $65 billion. Lebanon has accused Israel of setting forest fires and deliberately destroying agricultural land, while Syria, without naming specific actors, has emphasised that years of conflict and terrorism have hampered its climate resilience. African nations, notably Sudan, underscored the existential threat posed by drought and flooding, as much as armed conflict, to their security.
Armenia has denounced SOCAR’s plans to develop “green energy zones” on lands reclaimed in Nagorno-Karabakh, viewing it as an attempt by Baku to improve its credentials in both fossil and green energy. Aliyev sees no contradiction in these dual pursuits, asserting that Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources are “a gift from God.” Meanwhile, Turkey’s President Erdoğan has claimed that “the climate change narrative” promoted by “Zionism” is an obstacle to Turkey’s ambitions in Africa. In Brazil, concerns are rising that Donald Trump’s election could undermine President Lula’s efforts to secure climate finance for the Global South.
China, ahead of COP29, has emphasised its leadership in renewable technologies, while accusing the U.S. and European countries of undermining its solar and electric vehicle industries through tariffs. Ultimately, COP29’s success hinges on securing substantial financial commitments and harmonising technical standards. Although geopolitics will color the discourse, financial interests are expected to drive the agreements signed by month’s end.