By Nina Bachkatov
July and August were anything but uneventful in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The summer began poorly for Ukraine, yet by the end of August, Russian citizens were witnessing their refineries ablaze as far east as Omsk, while 120,000 people were evacuated from the Kursk region. Despite these setbacks, Russia’s advance in the Donbas continued, accompanied by relentless waves of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, leaving entire regions without electricity for much of the day. In this fraught context, President Zelensky’s plan for a second Peace Conference in November has come under scrutiny. Initially envisioned to include a Russian delegation and representatives of the “Global South,” the feasibility of the conference now seems uncertain. Meanwhile, President Putin remains steadfast in portraying Russia as under attack by Ukrainian terrorists backed by NATO, cyclically emphasising Russia’s status as a nuclear superpower.
Even the optimists now fear that the cycle of destruction and death will persist, fueled by a growing thirst for revenge in both Ukrainian and Russian societies. Rationality appears only one part of the equation when considering the non-exhaustive list of this summer’s developments.
JULY
10 July: The Washington Summit Declaration, concluded at NATO’s 75th-anniversary ceremonies, promises enhanced long-term support for Ukraine and signals the Alliance’s growing focus on Asia. President Zelensky returns home without the clear roadmap for NATO membership he had sought. In the meantime, Ukraine intensifies its signing of bilateral long-term security agreements, including with EU and NATO members.
18 July: The European Parliament confirms Ursula von der Leyen for a second term and selects Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas to lead the EU’s external service.
21 July: U.S. President Biden announces his decision not to seek re-election. Ukrainian diplomats establish contacts with members of the Trump team, potential nominees, and think tanks that could influence a future Republican administration. Following Kamala Harris’s unexpected success in her candidacy, Ukraine hedges its bets, engaging both sides instead of solely focusing on the risk of a “pro-Putin” Trump administration.
30 July: A Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman indicates Kyiv’s openness to consultations with the EU concerning the recently suspended transit of Russian oil from Lukoil to Hungary and Slovakia, provided Brussels uses “the appropriate mechanisms within the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement”. Ukrainian media and officials celebrate the role of Ukrainian intelligence in a Tuareg ambush on Wagner mercenaries in Mali, near the Algerian border on July 25-27, resulting in 20 casualties. Earlier, Ukraine had released videos allegedly showing its special forces cooperating with Syrians fighting Russian mercenaries in Syria. Since the completion of Foreign Minister Kuleba’s tour of Africa in early July, Ukraine has emphasised its strategic role on the continent, providing intelligence to counter Wagner’s influence.
AUGUST
2-3 August: Ukrainian media express regret over Ukraine’s exclusion from the 1 August prisoner swap between Russia and the West, as many Ukrainians remain detained in Russian prisons. There is anger over comments made by three freed Russian dissidents during a press conference in Germany, particularly their claims that sanctions are “unfair” and that the West should “lend a hand” to ordinary Russians.
4 August: Zelensky puts an end to four days of rumors by confirming that Ukraine has received its first batch of F-16s, with six aircraft provided by the Netherlands. Speculation continues about the potential use of foreign pilots to compensate for the lack of trained Ukrainians.
6 August: Ukraine takes everyone by surprise, including its allies, with an “incursion” into Kursk Oblast involving 3-4,000 well-trained troops, drones, artillery support, and electronic warfare equipment to jam Russian radars.
7 August: Over the following days, contradictory statements emerge regarding the objectives of the Kursk incursion: to bring the war home to ordinary Russians, to create a buffer zone, to force Putin to divert troops from the Donbas front, to capture prisoners for exchange, to weaken Putin’s position ahead of the November Peace Conference, to boost Ukrainian morale, and to test Western support.
13 August: The Ukrainian foreign ministry states that Kyiv’s cross-border attacks are a call for a “just peace.” Zelensky declares that the raid aims to mark the end of Putin’s regime, with conquered territories to be placed under Ukrainian military administration.
14-15 August: After months of investigation, a collective of German newspapers exposes the Ukrainian connection to the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, revealing the names of the culprits, including a Ukrainian citizen who has since fled to Poland.
17 August: Ukrainian forces advance in the Kursk region. U.S. sources indicate that American intelligence agencies had been aware of Ukraine’s cross-border ambitions for more than a year, though the timing and location were unexpected. The Doha talks, intended to address prisoner exchanges and mutual commitments to refrain from targeting energy infrastructure, are cancelled/postponed due to the Kursk incursion.
18 August: Germany’s new budget freezes any additional military aid to Ukraine, though previously allocated funds will be disbursed.
20 August: Ukraine’s parliament passes a bill giving nine months for parishes and religious organizations to sever ties with the Russian Orthodox Church to “end pro-Kremlin influence.” Zelensky asserts that an independent nation must also be spiritually independent.
21 August: Zelensky discusses the new law with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, assuring him that Ukraine seeks to “strengthen Orthodoxy.” Turkish nationalists decry this as another instance of “interference in Turkish affairs,” given the Patriarch’s seat in Istanbul.
23 August: On Ukrainian National Flag Day, President Zelensky holds a lengthy press conference under the theme “Ukraine will defend its independence and rebuild the country.” The visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on this day is hailed as a symbol of Ukraine’s growing global influence and as a signal from the Global South that “neutrality towards the war in Ukraine does not equate to indifference.” Modi asserts that Ukraine and Russia must end the war “through dialogue and diplomacy” and expresses his readiness to play a personal role in facilitating peace.
24 August: Zelensky announces that Ukrainian forces successfully struck Russian targets with a new “missile-drone” called Palyanytsya, describing it as an “entirely new class” of weapon.
27 August: Meeting Ukraine’s syndicated press, Zelensky states that the Kursk incursion is “part of a victory plan” to be presented to U.S. leadership, that Ukraine has successfully tested its own ballistic missile and promises more “surprises.” The Ukrainian foreign ministry warns Belarus about a military buildup near the Gomel region border, including Wagner fighters.
28 August: Ukrainian missiles and drones continue to strike deeper into Russian territory, targeting energy supplies and military airports. Ukraine’s “right to self-defense” is now supported by most of its allies, including the NATO Secretary General. This follows an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council in Brussels, convened at Ukraine’s request after two days of massive Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Via video link, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov briefs NATO on the battlefield situation and calls for more anti-air defense and support from European air forces to back Ukrainian pilots and air defenses.
28 August: Zelensky describes the situation near Pokrovsk as “extremely difficult”. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba attends an EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Brussels, pushing to lift restrictions on long-range strikes on legitimate military targets within Russia. He lobbies European leaders to persuade Washington to revise its stance on these restrictions and to authorise the interception of Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace from neighbouring countries. Kuleba argues that Ukraine’s successes in developing and deploying advanced weapons should not excuse partner countries from supplying similar weapons to Ukraine.
29 August: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms that an F-16 fighter jet crashed on 26 August, killing its pilot, possibly due to friendly fire. Ukrainian-produced drones are now capable of reaching up to 1,000 km inside Russian territory.
30 August: Zelensky dismisses the commander of the Air Force. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine terminates the agreement between Ukraine and Russia, signed on 27 February 1998, regarding the organisation of a secure direct phone line between Kyiv and Moscow.
31 August: In his evening address, President Zelensky highlights the “terror bombing” of Sumy and Kharkiv as the backdrop to a high-level Ukrainian delegation’s visit to Washington, including Defense Minister Umerov and Senior Adviser Andriy Yermak. They are urging “vital decisions” on the use of long-range Western-supplied weapons to force Russia into seeking an end to the war and a “just peace.” He adds that the situation is “difficult” in the Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Kupyansk areas, and that operations into Russian territory will continue.