By Nina Bachkatov
At a two-day NATO summit in Brussels, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent an implicit message to President Vladimir Putin. “We will know in a few weeks if Russia wants peace,” he told delegates. The meeting’s agenda focused on European security, particularly in Ukraine, and on reassuring allies unnerved by President Trump’s apparent alignment with the Kremlin’s narrative. The summit was overshadowed by “Liberty Day,” during which Trump unveiled his latest salvo in the trade wars—tariffs targeting both allies and adversaries. European goods were hit with a 20 per cent levy, Chinese imports with 34 per cent, and Ukrainian products with 10 per cent. Russia, however, was spared—officially because, as the US Treasury noted, “we have no trade with it.”
On the battlefield, Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to trade accusations of violating a ceasefire imposed on Kyiv by American negotiators in Jeddah and tepidly endorsed by Moscow under a host of ambiguous conditions. Both sides have targeted energy infrastructure and so-called military positions, indicating preparation for a spring offensive and further talks shaped by the evolving military situation.
Competing Narratives
The Kremlin is well aware that European and Ukrainian leaders are attempting to warn Trump against falling into a geopolitical trap set by Russia—one that plays to his ego. In turn, Moscow frames its message to the former president as a cautionary tale about “Russophobes” trying to manipulate him into their ideological crusade. However, in light of Rubio’s comments and signs of Trump’s dwindling patience for prolonged conflict, Putin may be forced to reconsider the tactics he employed in the lead-up to the Riyadh summit.
Despite his instincts, the Russian president now finds himself navigating uncertain terrain. He is acutely aware that Trump can reverse course within hours—and that the former president’s impulsive style cannot be dismissed. Yet both leaders share a transactional worldview and prioritise bilateral dialogue as a way of addressing the global disorder. In this frame, Ukraine becomes a regional issue that President Zelensky—backed by what Moscow sees as “feeble” Europeans—has elevated into a broader battle for democracy and global peace.
Tellingly, no one speaks of a “reset”—the Obama-era attempt to restore relations with Russia. Moscow never forgave what it saw as Washington’s arrogance, nor the infamous translation gaffe that accompanied the initiative. For Russia, “reset” was a return to an era of weakness. Trump’s administration appears to begin on a different footing—one that acknowledges Russia’s revived strength and aspirations as a great power.
Russia–US Diplomacy
Faced with this complexity, the Kremlin has adopted a multi-layered diplomatic approach, keeping Putin largely in the background while deploying trusted envoys to articulate the official line and his skilled spokesman to comment it. This has led to a diverse cast of negotiators operating through open channels in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Washington—channels that, unlike those with Europe, were never formally closed.
At the first Riyadh meeting, Putin dispatched Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. At the second, he sent Grigori Karasin and Sergei Beseda, both former diplomats now involved in politics and intelligence. They were later joined by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), who travelled to Washington from 2–4 April to meet US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
Dmitriev, under US sanctions since 2022, required a temporary waiver to enter the country. But he brings with him strong American credentials—degrees from Stanford and Harvard Business School, and a career that began at Goldman Sachs and McKinsey. Back to Russia, he led a division of a US-Russia investment fund created under President Clinton to revitalise the Russian economy. Since 2010, he has headed RDIF, cultivating relationships with investors worldwide.
In this new diplomatic offensive, Dmitriev acts as a Kremlin emissary offering lucrative economic cooperation in exchange for softening American position on the Ukraine war and lifting some sanctions. A pragmatist, he acknowledges that “resistance to dialogue is real” but insists many countries understand that improved US-Russia relations would enhance global security.
Preparing for War
Interpreting Russia’s diplomatic manoeuvring as evidence of division or military weakness would be misguided. While pursuing a settlement—albeit on largely unacceptable terms—the Kremlin continues to strengthen its armed forces in both technological and human dimensions. On 1 April, Putin signed a decree launching the spring conscription, with the Ministry of Defence announcing a record intake of 160,000 new recruits.
The figure reflects two factors. Demographically, the conscripts were born in the early years of Putin’s presidency, when optimism led to a modest baby boom—similar to the one seen during Gorbachev’s early tenure. Technically, the draft process has been modernised. In the past, conscription papers were delivered by hand, allowing draft dodgers to disappear from their official addresses. Now, summons are issued electronically and take effect automatically after a short delay. Corruption, another traditional route to avoid service, has been curbed following the arrest of several local military officials. Nevertheless, exemptions remain for students, workers in strategic industries, and for social reasons—helping to shield the process from allegations of inequality.