Some Hopes for Peace, Somewhere in Caucasus

By Nina Bachkatov

With all attention focused on Ukraine, peace has discreetly made a step forward in South Caucasus. On 13 March, Azerbaijan and Armenia confirmed they had “completed the text of a peace agreement” which would end, if fully implemented, a conflict dating back to the late Soviet period. Episodes of this tragic relation include the unilateral declaration of independence by the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1988; a first war resulting in Azerbaijani defeat and the expulsion of Azeris from Karabakh, and years of intermittent violence. In September 2020, having rebuilt his military capabilities thanks to energy revenues, President Aliyev launched the Second Karabakh War. After months of unequal fighting and a total blockade of the population, his army regained control of the breakaway region and re-established Azerbaijan’s entire Soviet-era frontier with Armenia. Some 120,000 Armenians fled a region they consider the cradle of Armenia.

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Jeddah Diplomacy and the Shifting Dynamics of the Ukraine Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

The publication of a joint communiqué following marathon discussions in Saudi Arabia has fuelled speculation about a potential shift in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. The statement, reportedly based on an agreement proposed by the United States and accepted by Ukraine, is to be conveyed to Russia via American envoys. In return, Washington has resumed intelligence sharing and arms deliveries, ending a brief pause, with Poland confirming that stored weaponry was immediately dispatched. As part of the agreement, Ukraine has accepted a cease fire extending beyond air and maritime operations, as initially suggested by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Furthermore, Kyiv has consented to sign a long-debated agreement granting American entities access to its national resources.

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