Month: January 2025

Trump and the Kremlin: the Largely Blackboard

By Nina Bachkatov

On 20 January, from their respective capitals, President Putin and President Zelensky congratulated President Trump on his inauguration. Both spoke of peace, albeit with differing qualifications: for the Ukrainian leader, a “just peace”; for the Russian, a “lasting peace”. Trump envisions dialogue between Washington and Moscow—not Kyiv and Brussels—as central to his approach. The new president views himself as a peacemaker, pointing to his success in pressuring the Israeli prime minister to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas as evidence that similar pressure on Zelensky could yield results. This is reflected in Putin’s remark that their dialogue should aim to “prevent a Third World War”.

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Another step out of Russia

By Nina Bachkatov

President Zelensky hailed as “historic” the cessation of Russian gas exports through Ukraine on January 1. The five-year transit contract, signed at the end of 2019, had been maintained even after Russia’s invasion, as Ukraine sought to “demonstrate its reliability as a partner to Europe”. On 19st December 2024, President Zelensky confirmed that the contract would not be renewed, stating it was a move aimed at undermining Russia’s war effort. However, he said little about the potential economic consequences for Ukraine, including the loss of transit fees, the inability to siphon deliveries en route to the EU as in the past, and the heightened risk of Russian attacks on pipeline infrastructure. He also categorically ruled out transporting Russian gas disguised as Azerbaijani via Ukrainian pipelines.

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