Democracies for all their defects are better equipped than any existing system as they provide for a rotation of the elites, up to the presidency; a set of institutions to control the use of power once people have been elected; a press open to dissent voices inside the system ready to leak information or documents, towards political circles and public opinion.
For all its well documented medical and social consequences, Covid can also weight on international relations because the self-insulation for fear of contamination can feed already existing obsessions. In the case of the Russian president, it left a leader with very limited contacts, even with his closest collaborators, and no social life. In consequence, it reinforced the paranoid vision of the world that Vladimir Putin had expressed since the time he came to power. For him, the West is working to destroy Russia; he is there to save it; and there is no-one ready to tell him anything else.
Among all the mistakes and miscalculations Putin has made up to now, his televised sessions were among the worst. They exposed a distance with reality, which extends to his P.R. staff. It is not only a question of wording and tone, but also of the body language that is now part of any assessment of a political figure. If left viewers with a feeling of fear and embarrassment. Including among Russians, who have been basically supporting him, albeit with some reservation. For them, the invasion of a neighbour, especially a brotherly country, is a signal that from now on you can be a patriot and be anti-Putin. Even among ordinary Russians fed with state media, there is a level of repulsion at the famous televised meeting of Putin with his Security Conseil, all parked at distance like animals in a circus and summoned to approve what the boss had decided alone. The lot included some personalities from the top inner circle, including siloviki. It does not mean they will turn against him, but it leaves a deep wound.
The accuracy of the American narrative is not only boosting the credibility that US intelligence had lost for decades, but it raises painful questions for Russians. It is not only about technicalities, but it extends to the possibility, against all odds, of a mole inside the Kremlin. Many analysts have their doubt, but it will feed Putin’s obsessions, and isolation.
Security issues on the European continent will have to be reviewed, between the allies, which can turn more complex than stated, and with Russia. Whoever is in power, this person will refuse to be faced with Westerners’ claims they are the winners, not only of the Cold war but of the first post-Cold war armed conflict on European soil.
In the meantime, the discussions are focused on the best way to help Ukraine, short of Western military direct interventions. Among the measures, some will require a realistic level of control on the spot. Notably the West’s readiness to open its borders to people with battle experience wanting to fight alongside Ukrainians and to deliver more sophisticated weapons. That is what president Zelensky asks for. But his popular support, so impressive today, might decline, paving the way for an internal power fight. The image of former president, and rival, Poroshenko leading an armed group to the front, has not been lost among Zelensky’s circles.
Another immediate decision concerns the Western reception of refugees. If badly handled, it can quickly appear as an opportunistic way to fill the need of the Western economies. Great Britain wants to replace foreigners affected by the Brexit. Germany economy needs a million arms. Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria need to fill the gap left by their own people who moved to EU old members. Ukrainians are certainly more palatable, and better qualified, than refugees from Afghanistan or Africa, but they want basically a shelter, in decent and legal conditions, and then go back home.