INSIDE RUSSIA AND EURASIA – On-line Intelligence Bulletin of the European Press Agency

Zelensky’s Diplomatic Offensive in the U.S.

By Nina Bachkatov

On 18 September, President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled a “fully prepared” Victory Plan, marking his second political gamble in as many weeks. The first was the unexpected cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk region, which reportedly caught even senior Ukrainian officials by surprise. This 10-point Victory Plan, more radical and uncompromising than the 4-point Peace Plan presented in February, adopts a “take it or leave it” approach towards Ukraine’s allies. Its contents will be “discussed” during a meeting with President Biden on 26 September, the focal point of Zelensky’s five-day tour of the United States.

A disconcerting war summer

By Nina Bachkatov

July and August were anything but uneventful in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The summer began poorly for Ukraine, yet by the end of August, Russian citizens were witnessing their refineries ablaze as far east as Omsk, while 120,000 people were evacuated from the Kursk region. Despite these setbacks, Russia’s advance in the Donbas continued, accompanied by relentless waves of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, leaving entire regions without electricity for much of the day. In this fraught context, President Zelensky’s plan for a second Peace Conference in November has come under scrutiny. Initially envisioned to include a Russian delegation and representatives of the “Global South,” the feasibility of the conference now seems uncertain. Meanwhile, President Putin remains steadfast in portraying Russia as under attack by Ukrainian terrorists backed by NATO, cyclically emphasising Russia’s status as a nuclear superpower.

Even the optimists now fear that the cycle of destruction and death will persist, fueled by a growing thirst for revenge in both Ukrainian and Russian societies. Rationality appears only one part of the equation when considering the non-exhaustive list of this summer’s developments.

Ukraine’s holistic reconstruction

By Nina Bachkatov

As the war prolongs far beyond initial expectations, Ukraine’s reconstruction has become a prominent topic on the agendas of international meetings and summits. The Berlin Conference on Ukraine, held on June 11-12, was noteworthy not only because it coincided with a G7 meeting and an EU summit that confirmed Ukraine’s readiness to begin accession negotiations. The conference saw participation from a diverse array of stakeholders, including governments, international organisations, financial institutions, businesses, regions, municipalities, think tanks, and NGOs, all agreeing to collaborate towards the reconstruction of a free, democratic, and economically vibrant Ukraine. This marks a significant shift from the focus on military assistance, humanitarian aid, and political support against Russia that has dominated discussions since 2022.

Lucerne: Zelensky’s diplomatic challenge

By Nina Bachkatov

A “Peace Summit” in Ukraine will be held in Switzerland on June 15-16, following a request made by President Zelensky in January. The Ukrainian president expects participants to discuss the 10-point peace plan he presented to President Biden in December 2022, and subsequently to the G7, G20, and other international organisations, when the military situation was more favorable. Now, with the expectation that the war might extend to 2025 or beyond, this meeting poses a significant diplomatic challenge for Zelensky. He envisions a global pro-Ukrainian, anti-Russian bloc, including not only Western allies but also states that have so far maintained an ambiguous neutrality.

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Ukraine better armed, with caveat

President Biden’s decision to allow Ukrainians to strike inside Russian territory using American munitions took everyone by surprise. This move followed US Secretary of State Blinken’s unexpected visit to Kyiv on May 14. Blinken was reportedly shocked by the situation on the ground as detailed by President Zelensky, including the rapid progression of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region and devastating attacks on Ukraine’s second-largest city. This is not only a human catastrophe but also a significant blow to Kharkiv, an industrial and research center crucial for the country’s future reconstruction. Moreover, the advance of Russian forces beyond the 2014 front line jeopardises the West’s goal of pressuring Moscow to negotiate from a position of weakness.

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The battlefield and political front: a shifting landscape

By Nina Bachkatov

The recent Russian offensive spanning the border between Belgorod and Kharkiv regions has ignited a flurry of discussions among Western observers, centering on terms like “strategic turn” and “historic shift.” These conversations gain particular significance against the backdrop of political upheavals in Moscow and Kyiv. However, the pivotal moment arrived from Washington. On April 21st, the US House of Representatives finally greenlit the long-delayed $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. Shortly thereafter, on May 14th, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a significant visit to Kyiv. President Biden’s swift enactment of the aid package, just three days after the congressional approval, fueled speculation about the quick deployment of American arms from European bases to Ukraine. Later, Blinken’s unexpected return on April 21st coincided with escalating Russian advances near Kharkiv.

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EU Takes Further Steps in Caucasus – Amid Risks

By Nina Bachkatov

In a matter of weeks, Armenia and Azerbaijan are poised to engage deeply in negotiations over border delineation, aiming to quell three decades of conflict regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, where repeated rounds of talks have proven fruitless. Despite the involvement of various regional powers, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the European Union has also sought to contribute. However, the EU has struggled to reconcile its role as just one actor among many in the former Soviet Union, including the Caucasus. The complexity of the situation on the ground, often underestimated from Brussels, underscores the potential for even minor actions to trigger significant internal and external ramifications.

Nevertheless, the EU possesses a specific mechanism for engagement through the Eastern Partnership (E.P.), which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Established at the Prague summit in May 2009, the E.P. offers additional funding in exchange for reforms in countries. Belarus has been removed from the list due to President Lukashenko’s regime; Ukraine and Moldova have pursued distinct paths.

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