Putin and Trump’s Gambles

By Nina Bachkatov

At a two-day NATO summit in Brussels, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent an implicit message to President Vladimir Putin. “We will know in a few weeks if Russia wants peace,” he told delegates. The meeting’s agenda focused on European security, particularly in Ukraine, and on reassuring allies unnerved by President Trump’s apparent alignment with the Kremlin’s narrative. The summit was overshadowed by “Liberation Day,” during which Trump unveiled his latest salvo in the trade wars—tariffs targeting both allies and adversaries. European goods were hit with a 20 per cent levy, Chinese imports with 34 per cent, and Ukrainian products with 10 per cent. Russia, however, was spared—officially because, as the US Treasury noted, “we have no trade with it.”

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Some Hopes for Peace, Somewhere in Caucasus

By Nina Bachkatov

With all attention focused on Ukraine, peace has discreetly made a step forward in South Caucasus. On 13 March, Azerbaijan and Armenia confirmed they had “completed the text of a peace agreement” which would end, if fully implemented, a conflict dating back to the late Soviet period. Episodes of this tragic relation include the unilateral declaration of independence by the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1988; a first war resulting in Azerbaijani defeat and the expulsion of Azeris from Karabakh, and years of intermittent violence. In September 2020, having rebuilt his military capabilities thanks to energy revenues, President Aliyev launched the Second Karabakh War. After months of unequal fighting and a total blockade of the population, his army regained control of the breakaway region and re-established Azerbaijan’s entire Soviet-era frontier with Armenia. Some 120,000 Armenians fled a region they consider the cradle of Armenia.

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Jeddah Diplomacy and the Shifting Dynamics of the Ukraine Conflict

By Nina Bachkatov

The publication of a joint communiqué following marathon discussions in Saudi Arabia has fuelled speculation about a potential shift in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. The statement, reportedly based on an agreement proposed by the United States and accepted by Ukraine, is to be conveyed to Russia via American envoys. In return, Washington has resumed intelligence sharing and arms deliveries, ending a brief pause, with Poland confirming that stored weaponry was immediately dispatched. As part of the agreement, Ukraine has accepted a cease fire extending beyond air and maritime operations, as initially suggested by President Volodymyr Zelensky. Furthermore, Kyiv has consented to sign a long-debated agreement granting American entities access to its national resources.

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From Munich to Riyadh: More Than Just the Ukraine Test For E.U.

By Nina Bachkatov

A week of geopolitical upheaval has dramatically altered how Ukraine and its allies intended to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The catalyst was former President Donald Trump’s blunt revelation that he had spoken for 90 minutes with Russian President Vladimir Putin—an announcement that came as a complete surprise to both Ukraine and the European Union, who were only informed after the fact. Trump’s message was unambiguous: Ukraine will not join NATO; the United States will not deploy troops but supports European nations doing so; Russia will retain control over occupied territories; and American assistance to Ukraine will be dictated by U.S. financial interests. Moreover, Washington and Moscow would hold further talks in Saudi Arabia.

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Russian energy back on the EU agenda

By Nina Bachkatov

Everything appeared to be proceeding according to a well-scripted agenda, unfolding through months of indecision, bravado, and uncertainty. The war in Ukraine remained challenging on the front line, yet political and financial support remained unwavering. Few had taken seriously President Trump’s electoral promise to resolve the conflict within 24 hours by presenting President Putin with a deal he could not refuse. The EU was on course to adopt a 16th package of sanctions, bolstered by indications that the Russian economy and budget were facing increasing difficulties in balancing the cost of the war.

Although the package also reflects a lack of creative political alternatives, Brussels remains firmly committed to sanctions, particularly in the energy sector, adhering to its decision to eliminate Russian fossil fuels by 2027. On 4 February, undeterred by Kyiv’s military setbacks and galvanised by the need to respond to President Trump’s geopolitical pronouncements, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her equivalent of an inaugural speech. The content had been previewed a week earlier at the EU Ambassadors’ Conference. Her “Competitive Compass” is not significantly different from other “roadmaps” the EU is fond of producing. However, one of its four “concrete measures” to stimulate the continent’s economy over the next five years specifically addresses lowering energy costs.

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Trump and the Kremlin: the Largely Blackboard

By Nina Bachkatov

On 20 January, from their respective capitals, President Putin and President Zelensky congratulated President Trump on his inauguration. Both spoke of peace, albeit with differing qualifications: for the Ukrainian leader, a “just peace”; for the Russian, a “lasting peace”. Trump envisions dialogue between Washington and Moscow—not Kyiv and Brussels—as central to his approach. The new president views himself as a peacemaker, pointing to his success in pressuring the Israeli prime minister to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas as evidence that similar pressure on Zelensky could yield results. This is reflected in Putin’s remark that their dialogue should aim to “prevent a Third World War”.

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Another step out of Russia

By Nina Bachkatov

President Zelensky hailed as “historic” the cessation of Russian gas exports through Ukraine on January 1. The five-year transit contract, signed at the end of 2019, had been maintained even after Russia’s invasion, as Ukraine sought to “demonstrate its reliability as a partner to Europe”. On 19st December 2024, President Zelensky confirmed that the contract would not be renewed, stating it was a move aimed at undermining Russia’s war effort. However, he said little about the potential economic consequences for Ukraine, including the loss of transit fees, the inability to siphon deliveries en route to the EU as in the past, and the heightened risk of Russian attacks on pipeline infrastructure. He also categorically ruled out transporting Russian gas disguised as Azerbaijani via Ukrainian pipelines.

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